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Finnish Economic Outlook

Last modified 25.11.2024 at 17:10
Metro Kalasatamassa, taustalla Kalasataman tornitalot.

On this page, you will find a summary of Finland’s economic outlook:

Key indicators of Finland’s economy
Finland’s Economic Situation in International Comparison
Employment Rate and Productivity
Finland’s Population Development

Key indicators of Finland’s economy

Finland’s economic growth has been sluggish in recent years. In the exceptional economic environment of recent years, inflation has been faster than usual. To curb this, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its key interest rates rapidly. However, by autumn 2024, the trend has shifted toward lowering key interest rates. In Finland, inflation is already at a moderate level, making the European interest rate policy relatively tight for Finland’s economic cycle. Consumer confidence in Finland remains below the long-term average, and consumers are cautious about making purchases. The business climate is currently very weak, but expectations for improvement are beginning to emerge.

Finland’s Annual GDP Development, including forecast

Annual change, %

Source: Bank of Finland, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Inflation in Finland and the ECB Key Interest Rate

Annual change in the Consumer Price Index

Source: Statistics Finland, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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Manufacturing business situation and outlook

Balance figure, seasonally adjusted

Source: EK, Business Tendency Barometer
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 13:23
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Consumer Confidence, Finland

Source: Statistics Finland
Last modified 27.11.2024 at 7:17
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Finland’s Economic Situation in International Comparison

Finland’s economic growth is expected to be modest in the coming years compared to international benchmarks. Finland’s GDP per capita is lower than it was before the financial crisis, meaning that the standard of living for Finns has not increased in over 15 years. At the same time, GDP per capita has grown in key competitor countries. Public sector debt is increasing in Finland and is significantly higher compared to other Nordic countries.

GDP forecast for Finland, USA and euro area

GDP growth %

Source: IMF, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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GDP development in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, EU and USA

Index, 2008=100

Source: OECD, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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Public Sector Debt in Finland and the Nordic Countries

% of GDP

Source: Eurostat, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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Overall tax rate in Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, and Estonia

% of GDP

Source: OECD, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Employment Rate and Productivity

Finland has fallen behind competitor countries in both the employment rate and labor productivity. Productivity, in particular, is key to economic growth.

Employment Rate in Finland, Sweden, and Denmark

Employment rate, ages 15-64

Source: Macrobond. OECD (OECD MEI, Labour Force Survey, Employment Rate, Aged 15-64)
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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Unemployment Rate in Finland

Three-month moving average

Source: Statistics Finland
Last modified 26.11.2024 at 6:42
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Labor Productivity per Person in Finland, Sweden, Germany, and the Euro Area

Index, 2010 = 100

Source: Eurostat, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Finland’s Population Development

The working-age population is declining in Finland, which is creating increasing challenges for public finances. The share of people over 65 is growing, leading to a worsening dependency ratio and rising care costs. Many sectors are already struggling with a shortage of skilled labor. Birth rates are at a record low in Finland and in many other countries, so the outlook for population development is not improving. The bright spot in population trends is the growth in net immigration.

Development of the Working-age Population in Finland, Sweden, the EU, and the World

Index, 2010=100

Source: World Bank
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Proportion of People Over 65 Years of Age in the Total Population, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, and the world

% of the population

Source: World Bank
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Birth Rate in Finland, Sweden, and EU Countries

Total fertility rate, i.e., the average number of children women have during their lifetime.

Source: World Bank, Macrobond
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:49
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Immigration to Finland (net sum)

Immigration minus emigration

Source: Statistics Finland
Last modified 25.11.2024 at 11:50
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