Even though uncertainty persists, the order intakes of Finland’s largest export sector show a surprising glimmer of light
Order books and new orders in the technology industry have strengthened significantly in spite of extraordinary trade and geopolitical volatility. Growth has been clearly driven by the shipbuilding industry, but the last quarter of 2025 was surprisingly upbeat for the sector as a whole. However, there are still no signs of a significant turnaround in the economic situation, and growth in demand remains sluggish.
A long-awaited glimmer of light can be seen in the order intakes of Finland’s largest export sector, according to Technology Industries of Finland’s latest survey of order books and personnel. The information is based on the situation on 4 February 2026.
The monetary value of new orders in the October–December period was 45 per cent greater than in the previous quarter, and eight per cent higher year-on-year. An extremely valuable ship order contributed to this surge.
“However, large individual orders were not the only reason for the stronger order intakes. Performance on a broader scale in the technology industry was surprisingly upbeat in the fourth quarter. As many as 61 per cent of companies reported an increase in their order intake compared to the third quarter. It’s still too early to state that there’ll definitely be a clear turnaround in the economic cycle, but expectations for growth this year have clearly picked up,” says Senior Economist Hanne Mikkonen.
High-value marine projects scheduled over a lengthy period increase the value of order books in the entire technology industry over the long term. Order books in the technology industry were 12 per cent larger at the end of December than at the end of September, and 19 per cent higher than in December 2024. On the basis of order trends in the latter half of last year, the turnover of companies in the technology industry is expected to grow in 2026.
The balance figure for tender requests in January was +6, and it remained fairly unchanged throughout last year. The balance figure is the share of enterprises reporting positive development less the share of those with a negative trend.
“In other words, demand has not started to see brisk growth yet, but in spite of the considerable uncertainty concerning trade policy, there is activity in the market and companies appear to be able to operate in these highly turbulent conditions,” says Mikkonen.
The number of personnel in the industry remained stable last year in view of general unemployment figures, with the exception of the last quarter, when the personnel count was 1,700 lower than in July–September. At the end of December, the number of people who were temporarily laid off was 10,300, a moderate figure compared with early 2025. On the other hand, far fewer new employees were recruited than in previous years, only 5,500 in October–December.
“In the mechanical engineering industry, the personnel headcount is already starting to rise slightly. If new order intakes continue to strengthen this year, it’s likely that we’ll see growth in the number of personnel in the technology industry as a whole. This in turn usually bodes well for employment in other sectors and eventually for the recovery of the whole national economy,” says Mikkonen.
Finland must respond to extreme state aid competition
All that said, the global business environment remains highly volatile. US President Donald Trump issued multiple threats of tariffs in January and European industry is mired in zero growth. More than half of the Finnish technology industry’s exports go to Europe and slightly less than a fifth to the United States. Prolonged uncertainty is a burden particularly on the long-term outlooks and investment decisions of companies, and there are significant risks that economic growth will be weaker than expected.
“Export companies are forced to operate in an entirely new kind of environment. For this reason, the most important task facing both Finnish and EU policymakers is to safeguard the operations and financial security of companies. External risks must be reduced by ensuring the global competitiveness of the EU and Finland in the green and digital transition, and by bolstering the resilience of society,” says CEO Minna Helle.
The Finnish technology industry has strengths and growth opportunities that must be harnessed systematically in the midst of the upheaval of the familiar world order.
“In addition to critical raw materials and shipbuilding, Finland has world-class expertise in fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum technology, defence, aerospace, and security. At the same time, we’re facing extremely fierce state aid competition in Europe. Finland cannot swim against the tide when competing countries are massively subsidising their own industries,” says Helle.
Further information
Mikkonen Hanne
Senior Economist – Economic Development and Investment Technology Industries of Finland