TechnoBaro, March 2026

• The recovery in demand has continued at the beginning of the year, and the situation is surprisingly positive.
• Expectations for the coming months are positive, but very high uncertainty is overshadowing the outlook.
• Investments are expected to increase compared to last year. Growth is focused on R&D, digitalisation and artificial intelligence. It is also positive that machinery and equipment investments, which stagnated last year, appear to be turning to growth this year.

A surprisingly strong start to the year for the technology industry – the consequences of the Iran war cast a shadow over the future

The economy has long been expected to turn toward stronger growth. A year ago, the business cycle began to show early signs of recovery, but among other things, trade policy turbulence hindered growth, and it has remained quite weak. At the end of 2025, we received the first clearer positive signals about the industry’s situation from the December TeknoBaro. In addition, the first economic outlooks of the year showed a surprisingly bright development in order inflows for Finland’s largest export industry, and demand picked up broadly across technology industry companies.

Demand surprisingly strong given the global situation

Based on the latest TeknoBaro survey, the improvement in demand has continued at the beginning of the year. The balance figure for new orders is as high as +22. The balance figure for order books is +20, indicating that order books have also strengthened clearly in recent months. The TeknoBaro time series has been collected since autumn 2024, and both figures are the highest recorded during this period.

The gradual improvement in employment appears to have continued at the beginning of the year. So far, the slow recovery of the business cycle has not yet been sufficient to turn total employment in the technology industry into growth. The employment balance figure is now +14, indicating a gradual recovery in the number of personnel. The production balance figure is also +17, meaning that production has increased according to companies’ assessments.

Recent months have seen broadly positive development across technology industry companies. Larger companies with more than 150 employees report even more favourable developments across the board than smaller firms. Large companies are typically well informed about export demand conditions, so this may reflect, among other things, the recovery of European industry at the beginning of the year.

Companies expect growth in the spring

Companies’ expectations for the beginning of the year are surprisingly positive. The production balance figure is +33, meaning that a significantly larger share of respondents expect production to increase rather than decrease. The employment balance figure is as high as +18, raising hopes for an improvement in the personnel situation during the spring. Expectations for the coming months are positive, even though the Iran war was already ongoing during the data collection period.

Assessments for the beginning of the year are positive in both industry and services. Services view the outlook somewhat more positively than industry.

Although TeknoBaro currently provides surprisingly positive signals about the business cycle, it should be noted that there is an exceptionally high level of uncertainty in the markets. The beginning of the year has included several unpredictable events, most notably the Iran war that began in early March. Based on TeknoBaro, companies are still monitoring the situation calmly. The situation in the Middle East does not currently have significant direct immediate impacts on most technology industry companies. The most significant effects will come with a delay: if the war is prolonged, it will increasingly affect logistics, energy prices, inflation, and potentially the interest rates. This may undermine the growth that has picked up in recent months. Although improved order inflows create a positive outlook for the year, we must also prepare for turbulent times in demand and the economy.

Investments expected to increase compared to last year

A clear majority of companies plan to increase their investments this year compared to last year. The strongest growth appears to be in intangible investments, such as R&D as well as investments in digitalisation and artificial intelligence. In addition, machinery and equipment investments also seem to be increasing compared to last year. Last year these remained around zero growth, so the expected increase is a positive signal of a turning point in the business cycle and improving confidence in the future.

When interpreting the balance figure for investment intentions, it should be noted that it does not indicate the monetary value of investments. According to Statistics Finland, technology industry companies invest a total of over eight billion euros annually in Finland. Of this, fixed investments account for approximately 4.5 billion euros and R&D investments around 3.7 billion euros. Thus, more money is spent on fixed investments than on intangible investments.

The survey was conducted from Monday 9 March to Friday 13 March 2026.
The survey was sent to the CEOs of member companies of Technology Industries of Finland.
Of 1,693 recipients, we received 340 responses, giving a response rate of 20 percent.

Further information

Economy and Sustainable Growth

Mikkonen Hanne

Senior Economist – Economic Development and Investment Technology Industries of Finland

+358 440296152 hanne.mikkonen@teknologiateollisuus.fi