TechnoBaro, June 2026

• The recovery in demand continued during the spring, and the situation is surprisingly positive.
• All key indicators (new orders, order books, employment and production) point to growth during the spring.
• The immediate impacts of the Iran crisis have so far been smaller than feared.
• Investment intentions have remained at the same level as at the beginning of the year, and investments are expected to increase compared to last year in both fixed and intangible assets.
• Geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty is currently reflected primarily in rising costs.

Positive Momentum in the Technology Industry Has Continued Despite Global Uncertainty

The cyclical upturn has been anticipated for a long time, but geopolitical and trade policy turbulence has repeatedly pushed it further into the future. Around the turn of the year, clear signs of growth emerged in the technology industry. According to the March TechnoBaro survey , the positive momentum continued in the early part of the year and the recovery in demand strengthened further.

Demand Surprisingly Strong Given the Global Situation

The positive momentum in the technology industry appears to have continued throughout the spring. The balance figure for new orders remains roughly at the same level as in March, at +24. The balance figure for order books is also +24, indicating that order books have strengthened significantly in recent months.

The TechnoBaro time series has been collected since autumn 2024, and both the new orders and order book balance figures are currently at their highest levels since the survey began. According to TechnoBaro, employment in the technology industry has improved as summer approaches. At the beginning of the year, overall employment in the technology industry was no longer declining, although it had not yet begun to grow. The situation differed between manufacturing and services: employment had already started to increase slightly in manufacturing, while headcounts were still declining in services (information technology and engineering consulting services). The employment balance figure now stands at +22, suggesting a recovery in employment levels as summer approaches.

However, the difference between services and manufacturing appears to remain. Although employment is estimated to have increased in both sectors during recent months, the recovery seems to be driven more strongly by improving demand in manufacturing. The production balance figure stands at +27, indicating that production has increased during the spring according to companies’ assessments. Based on TeknoBaro, growth appears to have accelerated as summer approaches.

Looking at companies by size, recent months have been broadly positive across the technology industry. Larger companies employing more than 150 people report even more favourable developments across all indicators than smaller firms. This is encouraging, as larger companies are typically well informed about developments in export demand. It also suggests that the impact of the Iran conflict on export demand has remained relatively limited during the spring.

Companies Expect Growth to Continue

Companies have a positive outlook for the summer and early autumn. The production balance figure stands at +23, meaning that a clearly larger share of respondents expect production to increase rather than decrease. The employment balance figure is +15. Despite the exceptionally uncertain global environment, companies expect growth to continue. Expectations for the summer and early autumn are positive in both manufacturing and services. There are also no significant differences by company size; both employment and production are expected to grow in large and small companies alike.

The war in Iran, which began at the end of February, has disrupted oil markets and contributed to rising inflation. Nevertheless, the global economy has so far weathered the latest Middle East crisis better than expected, while stock markets have continued to rise, led by AI-related companies. Finnish technology industry companies also remain optimistic about the outlook for the coming months.

On Monday, 15 June 2026, it was reported that the United States and Iran had reached an agreement on a peace treaty. If the agreement is successfully implemented and peace holds, it will bring much-needed stability and predictability to the business environment. This would also support the growth prospects of Finnish technology industry companies.

As inflation accelerated following the Iran crisis, the European Central Bank raised its key policy rate last week. Higher interest rates may slow Europe’s already modest economic growth. The ECB currently forecasts euro area GDP growth of 0.8 per cent this year, and the forecast has been revised downward during the spring due to the effects of the Iran war. News of a peace agreement between Iran and the United States raises hopes that both inflation and interest rate increases may prove temporary.

Most of the output of Finland’s technology industry is exported, making the sector highly dependent on developments in global demand. The industry largely produces investment goods, and higher interest rates may affect companies’ investment decisions and, consequently, demand for technology industry products and services.

Geopolitical and Trade Policy Turbulence Is Primarily Reflected in Rising Costs

Recent years have been characterised by one crisis after another, and the current year has been marked by exceptionally intense geopolitical and trade policy turbulence. According to TeknoBaro, this is currently most visible to companies through rising costs. As many as 66 per cent of respondents report higher costs.

Supply chains are also facing increasing challenges. More than one-third of companies report delays and shortages of components.

A particularly concerning finding is that one-third of companies report postponing or cancelling investment projects due to uncertainty and the global situation. This could become a constraint on future demand growth in the technology industry. Compared with the situation just over a year ago, rising costs and supply chain disruptions now stand out clearly. These are among the most tangible ways in which the Iran war is affecting Finnish industry and business operations.

Just over a year ago, one in four TeknoBaro respondents stated that global developments had no impact on their business. Today, that share has fallen to only ten per cent. Geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty has become so significant that its effects are difficult to avoid.

More Than 60 Per Cent of Companies See Growth Opportunities

Although an uncertain global environment and structural changes create risks, they can also generate growth opportunities. As many as 64 per cent of TeknoBaro respondents believe that the current situation offers at least some opportunities for growth. Only ten per cent view the situation primarily as a threat.

The defence and security sector ranks as the most important source of growth opportunities. Artificial intelligence, data centers and energy solutions are also currently creating new growth opportunities for Finnish technology industry companies.

The Iran Crisis Has Not Yet Weakened Investment Intentions

Companies’ investment intentions have been improving since around the turn of the year. According to the June TeknoBaro survey, a majority of companies still plan to increase their investments this year compared to last year.

The strongest growth is expected in intangible investments, including R&D investments as well as investments in digitalisation and artificial intelligence.

Particularly encouraging is the fact that investments in machinery and equipment also appear to be increasing compared with last year. Such investments were essentially flat last year. Growth in machinery and equipment investments is a sign of a cyclical recovery and improving business confidence.

When interpreting the investment intentions balance figure, it should be noted that it does not reflect the monetary value of investments. According to Statistics Finland, technology industry companies invest more than EUR 8 billion annually in Finland. Of this, approximately EUR 4.5 billion consists of fixed investments and around EUR 3.7 billion of R&D investments.

In monetary terms, more is spent on fixed investments than on intangible investments. Therefore, the return of machinery and equipment investments to growth is particularly good news.

The survey was conducted 9–12 June 2026.
The survey was sent to the CEOs of member companies of Technology Industries of Finland.
Of 1,697 recipients, we received 304 responses, giving a response rate of 18 percent.

Further information

Economy and Sustainable Growth

Mikkonen Hanne

Senior Economist – Economic Development and Investment Technology Industries of Finland

+358 440296152 hanne.mikkonen@teknologiateollisuus.fi